A strong El Niño climate pattern this year is expected to fuel a more extreme winter season along the East Coast, forecasters say.
In Hampton Roads, that most likely means higher rainfall and tidal flooding.
“We do see more storm systems coming across the U.S., and we also see more of these storms developing right along our coast,” said Jeff Orrock, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Wakefield.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years in the Pacific Ocean, when waters warm around the equator because of weakened trade winds. The last one started in 2023.
The water releases massive amounts of heat into the atmosphere, with worldwide implications.
Officials are calling this year a “Super El Niño.” It has set ocean temperature records for the past 150 days and has the potential to become the strongest El Niño on record.
In the Atlantic Ocean, the weather pattern often helps suppress hurricanes by increasing wind shear. But it also intensifies the jet stream, Orrock said.
“Our weather in the fall and winter is driven a lot by the jet stream,” he said. “So if the jet stream amplifies and becomes more active, we typically on the East Coast become more stormy.”
Virginia happens to be just north of the “birthing grounds” where these storms often form, between Charleston and Cape Hatteras in the Carolinas, he said.
In El Niño years, Hampton Roads tends to see slightly warmer winter temperatures and lots of moisture, between about a half inch to several inches above normal.
According to a recent analysis by the Washington Post, Norfolk has a 5.2 times higher-than-average risk of winter precipitation extremes.
Unfortunately for white Christmas lovers, “when it comes to snowfall, it’s actually just the opposite,” Orrock said.
“The more you get into a super El Niño, the snow amounts in Norfolk really drop off pretty quick,” he said. “It doesn't mean no snow, but less chances.”
For example, there may be more days in which temperatures are in the 30s and 40s and rainy, versus below freezing and snowy, he said.
Officials hope increased rainfall could help with Virginia’s ongoing drought.
Fall and winter are the state’s usual “recharge” period, when water can seep into the aquifer and build in reservoirs without as many plants pulling moisture from the ground.
“We really do need a wet winter,” Orrock said, “or we could set ourselves up for really big trouble come spring and summer next year.”
But that will also come with increased coastal flooding, from rain but also high tides pushing water up the coast.
“We're going to see repeated flooding day after day after day, and a lot of times it builds,” he said.
The two recent nor’easters that passed through the region already fit into the typical El Niño pattern, he said. “So we may see more of that than what we’re used to.”
Orrock said El Niño’s impacts in Virginia could stretch through next spring.
Excess heat released by El Niño also compounds what’s already rising because of planet-warming fossil fuel emissions.
Scientists are still investigating whether climate change could be strengthening the natural phenomenon.
But many officials say the surging ocean temperatures serve as a limited preview of future climate conditions.
