As Radio IQ previously reported, in the 5th Congressional District, Democratic challenger Tom Perriello has almost three times as much cash on hand as incumbent Republican John McGuire. But what do those numbers mean for this November’s election? WMRA’s Meredith McCool reports.
KYLE KONDIK: It's very complicated, and it's actually gotten probably more complicated this year.
McCool: Well, good. I'm glad to have my feelings about the level of complication validated.
In an attempt to demystify congressional campaign fundraising, I spoke with Kyle Kondik. He is the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
KYLE KONDIK: I do election analysis and talk about who's favored and who's not favored, and what's going on in the election. … What does the candidate actually have, and then what are the outside groups doing?
I asked Kondik to give a brief primer on the most important things to know about fundraising, especially for congressional campaigns.
KONDIK: At the most basic level, candidates themselves will try to raise money, and there are limits on how much an individual donor can give. However, typically the money that the candidate themselves receives is more valuable than dollars that go to other committees because the candidate can control them, and also the candidate gets a better rate on buying television ads than outside groups do.
Kondik says the difference this year is the role of official party committees. In the House, that’s the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, or DCCC, and the National Republican Congressional Committee, or NRCC.
KONDIK: Prior to this cycle, the NRCC and the DCCC couldn't really coordinate with candidates directly on ad spending. … The difference now is that the DCCC and the NRCC don't have to do that anymore, and they can run coordinated advertising with the candidates, which also allows them – based on just newly issued legal precedent – it allows the outside groups … to take advantage of that lower cost for running television ads.
The Federal Election Commission, or FEC, website displays fundraising data that gets reported quarterly.
KONDIK: We're not going to have the next full quarterly report until October 15 for the third quarter of 2026.
As of July 15, Tom Perriello had raised more than $2 million with about $1.5 million cash on hand. John McGuire had raised about $1.7 million with more than half a million dollars cash on hand. That’s similar to the amount McGuire raised in 2024, according to The Daily Progress, when he won with about 57% of the vote over Gloria Tinsley Witt, who had raised a fifth as much money.
Neither Perriello nor McGuire, nor their campaigns, responded to multiple requests for comment.
KONDIK: I'd say both Tom Perriello and John McGuire are fundraised competitively. Perriello is probably an unusually well-credentialed and well-funded challenger in a district such as “Virginia Five,” which is fairly Republican leaning.
The 5th District has been reliably red since at least the 2016 presidential election.
KONDIK: The overall fundraising dynamic is that Democrats generally have had an advantage in terms of the candidate fundraising. … The Republican outside groups have more money collectively, particularly when you take into account that there's a super PAC called MAGA Inc. connected to the president that has hundreds of millions of dollars. It's unclear how much they're actually going to spend. But they did just start spending tens of millions of dollars in Senate races. As far as I know, there is not any outside spending booked in “Virginia Five,” nor has there been any coordinated spending with McGuire and the NRCC or Perriello and the D Trip.
On August 20, the DCCC added Tom Perriello to their “Red to Blue” list. According to a press release, “Red to Blue is a highly competitive and battle-tested DCCC program that arms top-tier candidates with organizational and fundraising support to help them continue building winning campaigns.”
JAMES WALKINSHAW: I wasn't surprised. You know, I figured it was just a matter of time.
That’s Rep. James Walkinshaw, the incumbent Democrat in Virginia’s 11th District. He said Perriello is –
WALKINSHAW: … a strong candidate running a really strong race. Rural communities like those that he's running in have, in some ways, been hit the hardest by the policies coming out of Washington. So it doesn't surprise me that he's on track to, I think, win in November, but certainly it's going to be a very close race.
Although national party committees haven’t engaged in coordinated spending in the 5th District so far this cycle, individual party members have. For instance, Rep. Walkinshaw hosted a fundraiser in August that brought together donors from across Northern Virginia to support three Democratic challengers: Elaine Luria, Shannon Taylor, and Tom Perriello.
JAMES WALKINSHAW: Folks in Northern Virginia especially are always looking for ways to get involved and be engaged in supporting good candidates across the state and across the country. … We ended up having more than 150 people raising $110,000 split evenly between the three candidates.
KONDIK: Keep in mind –
That’s Kyle Kondik again, of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
KONDIK: – a contribution to a candidate is different than running coordinated spending with them or an outside group getting involved.
And outside groups are getting involved through independent expenditures. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, “An independent expenditure is money spent – without coordination with any campaign – to advocate for the election or defeat of a specific candidate. These are often attack ads that appear on TV, social media, direct mail or involve door-to-door canvassing.”
In the 5th District race, two organizations have collectively spent more than one million dollars opposing Representative McGuire. The Rural Path PAC is launching a direct mail campaign to tell voters that Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act could lead to the closure of more than 300 rural hospitals nationwide, according to data from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Another PAC, Our Virginia, has spent nearly one million dollars on mail, digital, and broadcast media , including this ad –
OUR VIRGINIA ADVERTISEMENT: While things get more expensive for us, life’s good for John McGuire. … So John McGuire’s time in Washington has been good for him. How about you? Our Virginia is responsible for the content of this advertising.
LYNLEE THORNE: We'll be doing some independent expenditures this year.
Lynlee Thorne is the political director at Rural GroundGame, which provides direct, on-the-ground support to rural Democratic campaigns, committees, and community leaders.
THORNE: Whether that's billboards or text messages … just having a presence makes a big difference. People feel it when you're not there, and they notice when you start to show up.
On September 1, Tom Perriello’s campaign donated $15,500 to Rural GroundGame, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Thorne declined to discuss specific campaign strategies before the election.
KONDIK: As I follow Virginia Five, you know, we have likely Republican in our ratings. … What sorts of things would happen to make me think it was more like a lean? One of the things might be is if you really start to see outside money coming in. … So that's something I'll just be following between now and the election.
Election day is Tuesday, November 3. Early voting began Friday, September 18.
