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Political analysts: Voter confusion may have contributed to lower referendum turnout and a narrower margin

Signs supporting "vote yes" and "vote no" on the April 21, 2026, Virginia redistricting referendum placed outside a polling place at Pocahontas Middle School in a Richmond suburb.
Brad Kutner
/
Radio IQ
Signs supporting "vote yes" and "vote no" on the April 21, 2026, Virginia redistricting referendum placed outside a polling place at Pocahontas Middle School in a Richmond suburb.

Democrats were on the winning side of the statewide referendum on redistricting last week. But the Democratic Party-supported position underperformed across Virginia.
Some political analysts are blaming voter confusion.

Areas that have some of the highest Black populations had some of the lowest turnout numbers. Places like Petersburg and Emporia. Jatia Wrighten at Virginia Commonwealth University says that may have been because voters there were confused by the campaign.

"With like the use of the KKK or the Jim Crow symbolism trying to suggest that, you know, it was going to depress Black voices if you voted yes. And, so, in terms of maybe feeling overwhelmed or even just voter burnout, maybe this is why we see some of these low numbers."

Wes Bellamy at Virginia State University says Democrats may have won, but he said Republican-aligned groups successfully misled some voters about the position of former President Barack Obama.

"In one ad, there is a picture and there are words of him speaking against gerrymandering and you should vote no. And then literally in the very next ad, him talking about why you should vote yes. Individuals were confused," Bellamy noted. "And I think there were some people who just decided, because I don't know what's what, I'm just going to decide not to vote in this election. I'm tired. I got something else to do. I'm going to sit this one out."

Last year, Democrats had a 15-point margin of victory in the governor’s race. In the referendum this April, it was only three. And the certification of that result is on hold while the courts hear a handful of legal challenges.

Michael Pope is an author and journalist who lives in Old Town Alexandria.