Experts are calling it a “demographic cliff.” That’s the point in the next few years where a reduction in births after 2007 will start to impact college enrollment. And at a meeting Monday morning, elected officials in Richmond were already starting to worry about it.
The so-called “demographic cliff” will, according to researchers, see new 18-year-olds drop by about 15 percent by the end of the 2030s.
And at Monday’s meeting of the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission, the issue was brought up in the context of declining community college attendance.
“People who are of age that need a higher education, has that plateaued?" asked Committee Chair Delegate Mark Sickles.
"So, the first-time college freshmen, the college age students, that population of students is declining some,” said JLARC staffer Stefanie Papps.
The Fairfax Democrat asked about the “demographic cliff” after Papps said community college enrollment had already dwindled some.
Which prompted another question from Senator Ryan McDougle: “And that decline is going to continue and get significantly worse after 30, correct?" the Hanover-area Republican asked
"Yes, we expect the decline to continue as we see demographics change and we see fewer high school graduates,” Papps responded.
After Papps confirmed McDougle’s fears JLARC director Justin Brown said community colleges were planning for that future:
“Regionalize, get the footprint a little smaller and focus on some efficiencies, but also focus more on that mid-career student who may want to come back and upskill,” Brown said.
The JLARC report wasn’t all bad news; the Fast Forward job training program that uses community colleges to train for essential fields that don’t require a college degree is helping drive new enrollment. But its high cost, usually offset by regular student enrollment, may need to be addressed by the legislature.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
