As Hurricane Katrina approached the coast of Louisiana 20 years ago, forecasters knew it would be bad, but emergency responders couldn’t say where the greatest need for assistance would be according to Jonathan Colmer, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Virginia.
"Katrina was a case which exposed the power of extreme events but also the gaps in our ability to anticipate who would bear the brunt of those events."
Having a more detailed understanding of who lives where can improve emergency response, so Colmer and a team of students set out to create a database using information from the census.
"Population counts by age, income, race and other household characteristics that map to a much more localized level than previously – far more granular than say using information about the county," Colmer explains.
Knowing more about residents, he says, can help communities respond more effectively.
"If you know there’s a large elderly population in this part of the area, you might prioritize medical support or send transportation for people who can’t drive. If there are areas with lots of low-income households, you might have temporary shelters or provide more financial assistance after the fact in those places. If you think about a heat wave, where do we want to set up cooling centers?"
Conventional wisdom suggests people in low-income areas will have the greatest need, but Colmer says that assumption may not be correct.
"In some cases it might be wealthier communities – like during the recent wildfires in California, many of the homes inside the fire perimeter belonged to higher-income households."
As director of UVA’s Environmental Inequality Lab, Colmer tested the value of detailed demographic information coupled with weather forecasts when Hurricane Milton hit Florida. What he learned from that test case is helping to create a more accurate tool for predictions.
"The goal is ultimately to use the data to minimize how many assumptions we’re making. We want to look closely at who’s in harm’s way and think about the support they’ll need to stay safe."
The lab hopes to have a website with detailed information available within the next year, beginning with a study of Charlottesville and Albemarle County, then working through other parts of the Commonwealth before moving on to the rest of the country.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
