SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
The redistricting fight President Trump has entered in Texas is spilling over into the rest of America. Texas state lawmakers are drawing new voting maps ahead of the 2026 elections, trying to give Republicans five more seats in Congress. In response, the Democratic governors of California, Illinois and New York say they could retaliate by redistricting more wins for Democrats. We have two reporters in states that are swept up in this fight, Guy Marzorati with KQED in San Francisco - Guy, thanks for being with us....
GUY MARZORATI, BYLINE: Great to be with you.
SIMON: ...And Sarah Donaldson with the Ohio Statehouse News Bureau in Columbus. Thank you, Sarah.
SARAH DONALDSON, BYLINE: Hey. Good to be here.
SIMON: And, Guy, let me ask you first. In California, how's Governor Newsom weighed in on this potential battle between California and Texas?
MARZORATI: He certainly seems to want to go toe-to-toe with Texas on this. Newsom has floated a plan to redraw California's House maps, really with the purpose of helping Democrats because of what he's described as this break-the-glass moment.
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GAVIN NEWSOM: Everything is at stake if we're not successful next year in taking back the House of Representatives.
MARZORATI: And political analysts I've talked to in California say Democrats could pick up about five seats with the redraw. But there are two caveats here, Scott, I think I should mention. One is that Newsom has said he'll halt his plan if Texas does not move ahead with their own redistricting. And the second is that this whole line-drawing process is going to be tougher and perhaps more complicated in California than it would be in Texas.
SIMON: What makes it more complicated in California?
MARZORATI: Really just the fact that our political lines in California are drawn by this independent commission. And that commission was created by the voters back in 2010, so unlike in Texas, Newsom will have to go back to the voters to get permission to move ahead with this kind of gerrymander. And I talked to a former member of California's Redistricting Commission about this. Her name is Sara Sadhwani. She's a politics professor at Pomona College. And she really defended the independent commission's record, even as I think she understands where Newsom is coming from with this.
SARA SADHWANI: We haven't had a single lawsuit brought against our maps. We have some of the most competitive districts in the nation. On balance, those should be good things. But when not all states are playing by the same set of rules, California is essentially bringing a rubber band to a gunfight.
MARZORATI: And I'll add that the timeline for all this is pretty tight. If there's a special election in the fall for these new maps and they are approved, you'd then have a really quick turnaround right into the 2026 campaign.
SIMON: Sarah, you, of course, live in a state that voted heavily for President Trump in 2024. How does it figure into this growing redistricting fight?
DONALDSON: Yeah, it's kind of a unique scenario here. Ohio always had to redistrict mid-decade because of this 2018 law that says if Republican and Democratic state lawmakers couldn't come to consensus on the maps, they'd have to go back to the drawing board. And in 2021, they couldn't. So heading into this fall, there was a chance that mapmaking could have just been status quo, but it's hard to say whether that's changed under this current climate. I am hearing a lot about national pressure to draw districts that are more friendly to Republicans.
SIMON: We know that President Trump has said in Texas, his goal would be five more Republican seats. What would the numbers look like in Ohio?
DONALDSON: Right now Ohio has 10 Republicans and five Democrats. But Democrats won two of those five races pretty narrowly in 2024. So Representative Marcy Kaptur - she's the longest-serving woman in Congress and won by just a percentage point. But there's talk about desire for a 13-2 breakdown. That would be a gain of three Republican seats. Analysts on the ground say that could be a heavy lift, though. I talked with Jen Miller with the League of Women Voters of Ohio. She told me she's worried the focus is on the 2026 midterms, not what most benefits voters.
JEN MILLER: It should go the other way around. We should be looking at what communities constitute a district.
DONALDSON: I should note Miller and others have been part of past efforts in Ohio to create an independent redistricting commission like California's. Ohio voters handily rejected that on the ballot in 2024.
SIMON: You're both political reporters, so please tell us what strikes you in this moment about the political position of your state. Sarah?
DONALDSON: Yeah. You know, we're talking about these districts that are going to be drawn with - while it's recent data, it's historical data, technically, and that's to predict future voter demographics. But demographics shift, too. So Ohio is under a 10 Republican, five Democratic map right now, but some of that is because there were close races.
MARZORATI: And I'll just add, you know, I think this comes at a time when Democrats really, like, across the country are increasingly asking their elected leaders to be more confrontational, to fight even at the expense of compromise, even at the expense of norms. And I think this redistricting fight in California, you know, the country's largest Democratic state - it's a great test case, you know? Will voters here scrap a redistricting commission that they see as fair just to give Democrats a partisan edge?
SIMON: Guy Marzorati with KQED, San Francisco. Sarah Donaldson with the Ohio Statehouse News Bureau in Columbus. Thank you both very much.
MARZORATI: Thanks so much.
DONALDSON: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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