Unemployment claims are up 33% compared to this time last year, according to the latest numbers from Virginia's workforce development agency.
Terry Clower at George Mason University says the Virginia economy is about to come to a fork in the road.
"And then we have this what most of us are thinking will be a surge of new claims come in the fall as those folks who chose to take the early retirement or the separation packages," Clower says. "Those were all running through the end of September. So that would suggest that the numbers for October are going to look a lot different, and a lot worse."
That's a ticking time bomb, says John Provo at Virginia Tech.
"Do we wait for the bomb to go off or do we roll up our sleeves and start working now in anticipation of challenges? What I think we've got to focus on is facing through some of the uncertainty and finding places where we can pin opportunities."
Worry about all those federal jobs evaporating is a big reason why CNBC downgraded Virginia, which is no longer the top state for business. Now it's been bumped down to fourth place.
And the Weldon Cooper Center at UVA projects Virginia will lose 32,000 jobs this year.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
