AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
And now to Israel. Sarah Fainberg is a senior research fellow at Tel Aviv University, and she joins us now. Thank you for being with us.
SARAH FAINBERG: Thank you.
RASCOE: So first of all, what is your reaction to America's strikes on Iran?
FAINBERG: You know, from an Israeli point of view, this is obviously a historical moment - a moment in which the future of our country, as the only Jewish country state in the world, is being decided. Actually, Israel could not make it longer with a regime claiming, you know, the planning of the destruction of the state of Israel, being a nuclear threshold state. So for us, it's a difficult day because we do have victims and casualties, but this is also a fateful and a historical one.
RASCOE: Well, talk to me about that because Iran's been firing missiles into Israel today, as you're talking about. And I understand you've been sheltering in a bomb shelter. Do you think that this will be the extent of their response?
FAINBERG: This is early to say. This is very early to say, and we have a few scenarios. And of course, the IDF has taken into account a multiplicity of scenarios - including very bad ones - for the Israeli domestic front. But the point that I want to make - and I think it's so important both for the Gulf States and for Israel - is that what we've seen last night was a major demonstration of U.S. superiority in the region. You know, I've been studying Russian and Chinese presence in the Middle East for over a decade, and there was this impression that the United States was retreating from the region, leaving space to disruptive activities by both Russia and China that are both supportive of Iran, including Iran's nuclear program. And I think that seeing this masterful U.S. military superiority, air superiority in the Middle East, with Russia and China being unable to shape the course of event except from very aggressive diplomatic reaction - it does impact not only the fate of the peoples in the region, but I believe it will have reverberations in other arenas, including in Europe and in Asia Pacific.
RASCOE: Well, what do you think Israel's next steps might be in regard to Iran?
FAINBERG: It will all depend on Iran's reaction. Should Iran, you know, conduct, as it threatens to do, a massive retaliation, including U.S. assets and Israeli targets, I believe Israel will continue its systematic policy of destroying Iran's strategic targets.
RASCOE: Does Israel have the ability to continue this fight up if it lasts? - because they already are, you know, fighting on many fronts, whether it's in Gaza, Lebanon, now you have Iran. Is Israel able to keep this up?
FAINBERG: You're absolutely right. We are entering a perilous water, both at the operational and tactical level - because we don't have an infinite arsenal of air defense capabilities - but also at the strategic level. Our goal is to side with the Iranian people. We don't want to have Iranian casualties as a result of this war. And at the strategic level, we - the fact that the war lasts may have a bouncing back effect for Israel. We don't want a war in which the Iranian people will suffer. And we would prefer a war, the result of which would be a regime change in Iran. Even though it's not an official strategic objective of Israel, but it is a desired outcome of this war because it will - the main thing, even though the United States made a successful strike and we stroke, the main thing...
RASCOE: Not to cut you off, but...
FAINBERG: ...To note, that the Iranians - yeah.
RASCOE: But the - so the Israelis aren't officially saying they want regime change, but you're saying you think that that is the desired goal?
FAINBERG: Oh, yeah, absolutely because the Iranians will keep the capability to develop weapons and to develop an arsenal of missiles. This is one thing to have the capability, and this is another thing to have the intention. With a regime change, the intention will be different. And I think that the most desired outcome for the Gulf States, for Israel and for other peoples in the region, will be to have a regime or a government with another intention for the future of the region.
RASCOE: Well, I mean, that would be a huge change for the region. And I mean, there's a lot of unknowns with that. So what are the challenges facing Israel in the coming months? That's what they want, but what may they get?
FAINBERG: You're absolutely right. We may be - we may end up in a situation in which at the operational and tactical level, we can record many successes. But one of the major dangers would be - and this is called the culminating point of force - would be to force the regime into an even more intensive and aggressive development of missile, drone and nuclear threats.
RASCOE: Thank you so much. That's Sarah Fainberg of Tel Aviv University. Thank you.
FAINBERG: Thank you.
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